On Thursday, Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) said its third-quarter earnings fell 28% and warned of deteriorating conditions for 2009, and Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) posted a loss of nearly $23 million in its fiscal second quarter due to charges to reduce operations in Australia.
For the quarter ended Sept. 5, Marriott's net income slipped to $94 million, or 26 cents per share. Excluding a $29 million tax planning charge, adjusted income from continuing operations totaled $123 million, or 34 cents per share. Revenue rose 1% to $2.96 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 32 cents per share on revenue of $2.95 billion.
Marriott said its revenue per available room declined in North America, and timeshare sales evaporated due to the tight credit market and cutbacks in business and consumer spending.
The Bethesda, Md.-based hotel company lowered its full-year 2008 earnings guidance to $1.62 to $1.68 per share, from its previous guidance of $1.77 to $1.88 per share. Analysts had forecast 2008 profit of $1.78 per share. For 2009, Marriott said the outlook is uncertain, but it expects the environment to remain challenging. Marriott said it will focus on cash flow by trimming investments and share repurchases.
Marriott shares fell $1.34, or 5.3%, to $23.74 Thursday. The stock price is down 30.5% year to date.
U.S. stock futures were flat to lower Thursday morning following the senate approval of its version of the $700 billion bailout package. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said it was considering a rate cut. Following all the economic data released Wednesday indicating the U.S. is in a recession, this isn't surprising. The ECB is also meeting today to consider its move. Today, the Labor Department will report weekly initial jobless claims and the Commerce Department will release August factory orders. Regulators also extended the ban on short-selling shares of some 800 financial companies.
UBS (NYSE: UBS), which has been hard hit by the credit crisis, said Thursday it expects to return to profit in the third quarter after four quarters of losses. The bank has substantially reduced its exposure to U.S. commercial and residential mortgages. The bank wrote down more than $40 billion and raised close to $30 billion.
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) shares are down about 20% in pre-market trading after it missed analyst estimates when it reported its fiscal first-quarter earnings.
Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) was expected to report earnings of 32 cents a share in the third quarter. The company reported 34 centsearnings per share excluding an 8 cents adjustment.
JMP Securities upgraded Vertex Pharma (NASDAQ: VRTX) to Outperform from Market Perform following better-than-expected interim data for telaprevir.
Lazard Capital upgraded shares of Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) to Buy from Hold on valuation after their physician survey indicated solid sales growth in the company's MS franchise.
Calyon upgraded Data Domain (NASDAQ: DDUP) to Add from Neutral based on positive channel checks and valuation.
Goldman added Buckeye GP (NYSE: BGH) to the Conviction Buy List.
Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was upgraded to Hold from Sell and Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was raised to Hold from Reduce at WestLB.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded Cowen Group (NASDAQ: COWN) to OUtperform from Market Perform.
Analyst downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Sell from Hold as they believe loan loss risk will outweigh synergies from the acquisition of HBOS (HBOOY).
Citigroup downgraded shares of National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP) to Hold from Buy and removed the stock from the Top Picks Live List after the company announced July and August revenues and said pressure continues. The firm lowered their target to $20 from $28.
(Operator Instructions) Good day and welcome to this Marriott International second quarter 2008 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and President of the Continental European Lodging, Mr. Arne Sorenson. Please go ahead, sir.
Arne M. Sorenson, Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, President - Continental European Lodging
Thank you, Kat. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter 2008 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; Carl Berquist, Executive Vice President, Financial Information and Enterprise Risk Management; and Betsy Daum, Senior Director, Investor Relations.
Before I get into the discussion of our results, let me first remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.
After hitting a one-year high of $75.29 last July, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, HOT opened at $36.81. So far today the stock has hit a low of $35.23 and a high of $36.82. As of 12:05, HOT is trading at $35.77, down 1.63 (-4.4%). The chart for HOT looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four and a half months as long as HOT is below $50 at November expiration. Starwood would have to rise by more than 39% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
HOT as been above $50 as recently as late May but has shown resistance around $39.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 7/24) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HOT might find at its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $50 and falling. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HOT or MAR.
Oil at $200 and a Two-Year Recession The predictions of $200 oil have made it to the front page of The Wall S Journal. They have been hanging around in less prominent places, but now they gain some further legitimacy. The Journal predicts this would push gas prices to $6 a gallon. Oil at $200 would seize up the economy to the extent that virtually no industry would me immune. Fixing the problem could take a year, and, perhaps, much longer. 24/7 Wall St.: Oil At $200 And A Two-Year Recession
One Grandmother's Mortgage Nightmare The nation's housing meltdown is disrupting lives and devastating families. One New York grandmother is trying to put the pieces back together. Life after losing your home - CNNmoney
Boeing (NYSE: BA) shares lost more than 2.2% in premarket trading after saying its second-quarter results will include a charge of about 22 cents a share. Boeing still expects per-share profit of $5.70 to $5.85 in 2008 and $6.80 to $7 in 2009.
Wachovia (NYSE: WB) named Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel chief executive on Wednesday after a nearly six-week search for a new leader. It also said it may lose $2.6 to $2.8 billion during the second quarter.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) said it would open a new search tool Thursday called "Build Your Own Search," or BOSS. Yahoo! will share its technology with third-party developers in hope their creativity could help it preserve its independence by regaining some lost ground in the lucrative Internet search advertising market. Two specialty search services, Hakia and Me.dium, already have agreed to participate in the BOSS program.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is opening its online App Store for iPhone software on Thursday. The App Store will let iPhone users choose from over than 500 software applications to download, including games, educational programs, mobile commerce and business productivity tools. Some say the store is a far more important development than the iPhone 3G, as it could make the iPhone's operating system dominant among its competitors.
The earnings season was officially launched last night with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reporting better than expected numbers, and tomorrow we are going to see another big name, Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) report its second quarter numbers.
The company is due to report its current earnings prior to the market open, and going into tomorrow's report analysts are looking to see the company show 49 cents per share on $3.15 billion in revenues. The housing slump over the past year has definitely been hurting hotel operators, so it will be interesting to see what kind of quarter Marriott is able to show to its investors.
The last time the hotel chain released its quarterly numbers was back on April 17, when it matched analyst estimates for its first quarter with 33 cents per share. The stock made a brief rally following the release, but over the past month has been in a solid downward trend.
The new quarter brings with it a new earnings season. While the earnings crunch doesn't begin in earnest until the following week, Alcoa as usual helps kick things off this coming week.
One of the world's leading producers of aluminum, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to report second-quarter results Tuesday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of 68 cents per share on revenue of $7.4 billion. That's down 16% from EPS a year ago. Alcoa has missed estimates in two of the past five quarters -- by four cents in the previous quarter. Analysts have recommend buying AA for more than 90 days. Shares have fallen 10.3% year to date, but the long-term EPS growth forecast is 21.6%.
Beverage distributor Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (NYSE: PBG) is scheduled to report its second-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 75 cents per share, up 6.6% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $3.6 billion. PBG has offered up positive surprises recently, by a penny in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding PBG, and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 9.1%, which is better than the industry average. Shares have fallen 27.6% year to date.
San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
Merrill Lynch has reiterated its "underperform" rating on Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and dropped its price target to $28 from $29, according toMarketWatch.
Wachovia has upgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to "outperform" from "market perform", according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheimer downgraded Marriott (NYSE: MAR) to "perform" from "market perform."
For the quarter ended Sept. 5, Marriott's 
U.S. stock futures were flat to lower Thursday morning following the 
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