When you have a trading day like today and it comes after a week like this week, it is hard to determine if you are happier that the rally came on at the end of the day or if you are happier that the closing bell came to end the week. The markets closed down today but today felt like a win when you consider the 400 point move higher off of late day lows in the last hour. There are hopes of a coordinated G7 announcement this week along with some fresh hopes that the Treasury will make new banking injections and help in the LIBOR woes. The bond traders left at 2:00 PM early for Columbus Day, and the bond market is closed Monday.
Here are the unofficial closing bell levels, and remember that the exchange takes much longer to find actual close levels right now: DJIA 8,477.40 -101.79 -1.19% NASDAQ 1,649.51 +4.39 +0.27% S&P500 901.24 -8.68 -0.95% 10YR T-NOTE 3.861% +0.027% Top Analyst Upgrades
Barclays plc (NYSE: BCS) fell on reports that the financial bank giant is considering raising capital as part of the government's bailout package in the UK. Shares were down 9% at $14.66 in the final minutes before the close.
Maybe the economy is not quite ready to fall off a cliff quite yet, though it appears to be heading in that direction. At least, that's the message this morning coming from Dow stalwart General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).
General Electric, whose shares have been pounded lately because of concerns about its financing unit, today reported an in-line quarter.
In a press release, GE Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt, whose job may be in jeopardy, pointed out that the conglomerate was "on track" to meet its revised -- reduced -- guidance issued September 25. He also pointed out, "We have taken a number of steps to protect investors from the downside risk in financial services, and we have ways to mitigate potential disruptions in infrastructure and media markets, but the environment remains challenging."
GE also plans to sustain its dividend through the end of next year.
"We have big backlogs, great products, stable service revenue, strong operating discipline, an unmatched global position and multiple revenue streams. As a result, the Company is well positioned to perform in a very difficult environment, and our Board has approved our plan to sustain the GE dividend through 2009," Immelt said.
Despite the positive spin, the results were pretty dreadful. Profit from continuing operations fell 12 percent to $4.48 billion, or 45 cents a share, from $5.11 billion, or 50 cents. Many businesses including Global Finance fell by double-digit percentage points. Cash flow from operations plunged 18 percent during the first nine months of the year.
How sad is it that meeting reduced expectations is seen as great news?
As the Economy Sinks So Do the Odds of a Tax Cut One of the riskiest financial moves you make this year could be listening to the presidential candidates-and banking on a tax cut after the November elections. John McCain and Barack Obama both promise that widespread tax cuts will be one major way they'll revive the economy and help lift consumers' sagging spirits. But here's what you're not likely to hear either candidate say before Election Day on November 4: There's no money left for tax cuts. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchart/2008/10/9/as-the-economy-sinks-so-do-odds-of-a-tax-cut.html
U.S. stock futures were significantly lower Friday morning, a day after the Dow industrials had already plunged 678 points. The Dow dropped 21% in the past 10 days. U.S. stock markets are looking to join the plunge in global markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 9.6%, Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 7%, London's FTSE 100 declined 5.5% and the German DAX 30 was down 8% to name but a few that have managed to remain open. Some global markets actually had to close today, prompting the name "Black Friday."
Wednesday's coordinated rate cut didn't seem to loosen frozen credit markets as investors seem to completely lose confidence in the world's financial system. Finance officials from the G7 are meeting in Washington Friday to address the financial meltdown. On the economic front, August trade data and September import prices will be released. Oil prices plummeted to a one-year low of $82 a barrel.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- meanwhile this morning, GE reported results that met the lowered expectations. GE's profit fell 22% to $4.3 billion, or 43 cents per share, compared with $5.56 billion, or 54 cents, a year earlier. GE's revenue climbed 11% to $47.23 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $47.34 billion. GE recently got a $3 billion infusion from Buffett's Berkshire and raised $12.2 billion through a stock offering. Shares of GE are down about 1% in pre-market trading.
Someone help!!! The bear is eating the market and its participants. Today is just further evidence of a full blown bear market, and the recession isn't even yet officially underway. The short sale ban in financial stocks has ended, and that appears to have allowed some acceleration to the selling.
Brunswick Corporation (NYSE: BC) accelerated layoffs and forecast losses for the year today. Shares were down 19% at $8.05 right before the close to 18-year lows.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) missed earnings estimates and was put on S&P credit watch "negative" after the severity of the miss. Alcoa was down almost 14% at $12.67 immediately before the close.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) was available to be short-sold yet again, and S&P put it on negative credit outlook today. Shares went to lows not seen since 1950 from back when cars cost something like $3,000.00 brand new. GM probably made more per car then, too. GM was down 30% at $4.79 immediately before the close.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) fell yet again on fears that its Japanese financing isn't going to come through and as short sellers pounced on the stock. Shares were down 24% at $12.51 right before the close.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) fell 6% to $19.38 immediately before the close ahead of Friday morning's earnings report. It is impossible to expect anything great.
What an interesting time, my friends. Seriously, we're going to look back on this period and laugh about it (maybe, depends on how much you lost, I guess). Not only has the government become one huge hedge fund as the new cliche goes, but perhaps the oddest thing about this entire episode was the ban on short-sellers.
Well, they weren't totally banned. There was a list of stocks that couldn't be shorted, and they were tied to financial businesses. For instance, General Electric (NYSE: GE), a stock I own, was on the list. Why? You see, even though it makes everything from movies to healthcare equipment, a large chunk of the conglomerate deals with financial transactions. Now, the short-selling ban is gone, and financial stocks are once again subject to the whim of the trading technique.
I hated, absolutely hated, the restriction on short-sellers. It never made any sense (check out Tom Taulli's perspective on this subject).
Look, I can understand and appreciate the fact that the government had to get into the business of capitalism. At some point, there was no choice. If we all could choose, we would choose capitalism over helping a bunch of Wall Street goofballs who became intoxicated on noxious greed and who are laughing at us right now for being bleeding-heart enough to do it. We would. But, there was no choice, sad to say.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as in '87, nothing seems to work, whether it's the rate cut or positive technical readings.
This market is so much like 1987, it freaks me out. In that market, in the week leading up to the crash and the crash week itself, you would enter an order to buy a stock when it was up 2, get the report that you bought it up 3, and then it would be down 2. That's exactly what happened with Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) today. Exactly.
In that market you felt ripped off like you wouldn't believe. Every day. You would try to buy when the market sold off and never get the low or even lower prices, and you would feel like you could do nothing right.
It ground you up and spit you out. In that market you would get good news, and it would last long enough to draw you in, and then it would spit you out -- like Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take).
Now, I have to admit that I thought the market would finish up today. I figured it almost had to, because in the end it is still a big deal that we got a coordinated cut, even if it wasn't bigger.
Didn't matter.
I also figured that with credit markets actually beginning to thaw -- and I am talking about what Tony Crescenzi talks about -- we could catch a break. And the trade where hedge funds hedge their individual stock names with and S&P future shorts, the one Doug outlined, should have been good for more of a squeeze than we got. That seemed like a reasonable reason to go up, not to mention the minus 10 reading on the oscillator and only 25% bulls.
You didn't get those kinds of readings very often in the last 20 years and not bounce.
I just spent the last hour or so looking around the market, trying to find something to buy. I haven't purchased a stock in a while. I'm in the mood. But, you know something, it's pretty tough out there, to state the very, very obvious.
I read a piece today by my colleague Sheldon Liber in which he takes Jim Cramer to task for being too bearish. Sheldon makes some great points. In fact, he inspired me to find something out there. Unfortunately, I came up empty. I mean, I was looking at adding some shares of Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to my existing position in that stock. To be honest, I felt more inclined to preserve the profits in that stock by selling out of the position. Yet, Marvel at under $30 isn't a bad buy, in my opinion. Still, I didn't feel like adding, and that felt completely anathema to my emotional mindset.
I then thought about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE). And Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Nothing felt right. Nothing. Why? Well, I just don't see the merit of adding to positions just yet. Simply put, I see us going down instead of up. The market action today in the major indexes is not encouraging at all.
It's funny, because this is a case of the two sides of the same story being right. Cramer is correct in that the selling is not over. Sheldon is correct about there being values out there. But things feel so troubled. I mean, why isn't Coke rallying with all the chaos? Yes, I know many investors are concerned about growth at the company, but shouldn't it be rocketing higher with a defensive premium? Puzzling.
My colleague (sort of) James Cramer has suddenly turned into a giant, growling bear. He has been moving in that direction for a few months and now he thinks we all should go into hibernation for five years. He is so wrong!
First of all, it is never a good idea to make decisions while you are in panic mode. Second, Jim's guidance is moving with the market so he is not making any serious prognostication, just staying slightly ahead of the mob. He might as well stick his finger in the air.
Are things bad? Yes! Could they get worse? Yes! Would I run for the hills? ABSOLUTELY NOT! Even though I agree we are in for some tough times, I think the market is reacting to more than meets the eye (see All bets are off -- stocks' irrational downside).
If I recall correctly, 50% of the significant gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average were made on 7% of the up days. You have to be in the game to win the game. If you are in panic mode you should alter your investment portfolio so that you can rest easy. Diversification helps and speculation hurts.
Most people who have been investing for any length of time have heard of dollar cost averaging. This is where you put a certain amount of money into an index fund regularly each month, so that when the market is up you are buying fewer shares at higher prices and when the market is on sale, like it may be today, you are buying more shares at a lower price. This allows you to grow your portfolio consistently while paying a reasonable price for the shares you add -- on average.
7 Great Companies for $7 or Less These battered stocks are ripe for a rebound. They include Animal Health International, Build-a-Bear Workshop, Blockbuster, Global Cash Access Holdings, Great Wolf Resorts, Hackett Group and Spansion. http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2008/11/7_cheap_stocks.html Biggest Losers: 15 Stocks That Have Plummeted This Year The following list is of selected familiar names and large stocks that have plunged significantly over these time periods. It does not include the obvious names such as AIG, Wachovia, GM and the likes, but decent stocks we all liked and knew over the years. Among them are Alcoa, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Citigroup, Dell, eBay, General Electric, Google, Merck, Motorola, Sprint Nextel, Research in Motion, Sirius XM and Whole Foods are all down significantly more than 25% which is what the Dow is off in 2008. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/06/big-losers-15-large-stocks-that-have-plummeted/
After Monday, there are probably no more doubters left. We are in a bear market and we are in a recession and anyone arguing otherwise is living in a made-up world. The only thing left to argue over is how to get out of this dire situation, and how long it will last. Looking at stocks since the beginning of the year, and over the past month since the feds seized Fannie and Freddie, the picture isn't pretty. Many familiar names have vanished, many -- luckily -- have just seen their market value cut about in half. What once were some large stocks are now some of the smaller ones, including some DJIA components.
The following list is of selected familiar names and large stocks that have plunged significantly over these time periods. It does not include the obvious names such as AIG, Wachovia, GM and the likes, but decent stocks we all liked and knew over the years. By comparison, the Dow industrials is down 25% year-to-date, the S&P 500 down 28% during the same time and the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 30%. Over the past month (since the Fannie/Freddie rescue), the Dow declined over 11%, the S&P 500 declined nearly 15% and the Nasdaq declined over 17%.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) -- aluminum giant Alcoa is feeling the pains of a global economic slowdown and higher costs even as aluminum prices remain high. Alcoa shares hit a 10-year low Monday. YTD, AA market value has been cut in half, and over the past month alone Alcoa lost 36% of its value.
American Express (NYSE: AXP) -- the credit card company had large exposure to bad loans that affected its results. With analysts expecting credit card debt to be the next shoe to drop, AXP may see its stock fall more than the 42.2% it already has YTD. It plunged 23.68% this past month.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- even this consumer tech darling couldn't escape the claws of the bears as worries over demand for its products increased. AAPL, one of the stocks that actually had a positive day Monday and closed at $98.14, is down 50.45% YTD, 38.73% this past month.
There is a lot of bad news affecting the stock market and prices are falling for some very important reasons. These include reduced expectations for earnings, higher unemployment, a lack of liquidity, a housing market that has not bottomed yet, federal spending gone wild, and the collapse of some venerable financial institutions to name a select few.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index: started the year (Dec 28, 2007) at 1,478.49 and as of Friday October 3 it was 1,099.23, down 25.7%.
There are concerns about recession and even a depression and the global market for most commodities has softened.
Given all this how can I believe that the market is becoming irrational to the downside and values abound?
For one reason I know that many people are selling stocks out of fear of the market going lower and they do not want to be the last one out of the pool. That is a legitimate reason to sell but has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of a company or stock. If the index is being sold off then that means the good are being sold along with the bad.
Another factor pressuring the market relates directly to tight liquidity. I recently refinanced my home and the bank wanted me to reduce my home equity line to comply with its much tighter lending requirements. I sold some stock to accommodate them but this had nothing to do with stock valuations. I also sold some stocks and funds to buy down a commercial real estate loan in the past month. I had no pressure to do so because the loan to value is very low, but we are looking to acquire additional property as distress sales turn up and want to keep our powder dry.
Many people have been allowing their credit card debts to increase but facing little hope of growth in the stock market; those that can are selling stocks to buy down their debts where they can. This too has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of the stocks they are selling.
The Wall Street Journal's 'Heard on the Street' column reports (subscription required) on the less than impressive results of recent stock buybacks at public companies.
When a company buys back its stock, it pays cash to shareholders for their shares, and the retires them -- in a market where the vast majority of stocks are trading well of the highs the market reached last year, many recent buybacks are looking poorly-timed. The Journal writes that "General Electric (NYSE: GE) bought back $29 billion dollars of stock, paying an average of $36 and change for each share, according to regulatory filings. This week, it sold $12.2 billion worth for $22.25 each (before fees) and put $3 billion worth of warrants, with the same strike price, in Mr. Buffett's pocket."
The column goes on to argue that dividends "make for better financial discipline and more transparency." Of course that's easy to say right after the market has tanked, but it's a pretty illogical conclusion.
The main argument against dividends is that they're incredibly inefficient, adding an extra 15% cost. A company that pays out a large portion of its income as a dividend is effectively lowering its margins by 15% -- a move that seriously hampers long-term value.
Of course it's unfortunate that GE bought back so much stock only to sell it again at a lower price, but it's a mistake to form general theories about corporate governance based on anecdotal evidence culled from a once-in-a-generation credit meltdown. Given that shareholders of publicly companies presumably feel that their stocks represent a good value, it makes much more sense for corporate brass to hand them more stock with buybacks instead of cash to pay an extra tax on.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.
The market is bouncing around with every bit of news leaked from the Congress as well as company warnings and Federal reports. 'My pal Warren' is frequently being asked his opinion about the stock market and his 'stock answer' is that he ignores the overall market and its daily gyrations and focuses on individual investments and price (value).
Buffett drew plenty of attention this week when he invested $3 billion dollars in General Electric (NYSE: GE) preferred shares set at a permanent 10% return with a buyout clause allowing GE to get them back at a 10% premium. In addition Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) received warrants to buy an additional $3 billion worth of stock anytime in the next five years at a strike price of $22.50.
The company recently announced that it would curtail its stock buyback plan in favor of maintaining its dividend and its rare Triple-A financial rating. Given the vote of confidence expressed by Buffett (he got a great deal again) and the dividend yield of about 5% this stock is just screaming at me to buy more, but at what price.
Well, I have no crystal ball, but if you can buy GE at something less then the BRK.A warrant price and below its ten- year price you have to at least give it consideration.
Even though GE warned that earnings would fall below expectations for the quarter, (they report October 10, 2008, in one week), they are still earning more than they were the last time they were at this price. As a matter of fact, the metrics are far better now than they have been, according to this weeks Barron's recent follow-up story dated September 29, 2008.
They report that revenue has gone from $13 per share in 2000 to $19 now; cash-flow has increased from $2.00 to $3.30; earnings are up from $1.29 a share to $2.00 and the dividend has escalated to $1.25 from $0.57, yet the stock is 50% off recent highs.
As I have stated many times in other stories, if you are looking for an alternative to bonds or low paying treasuries that will give you a very healthy yield and the potential of sizable appreciation GE is a place to look. And now you can call Warren Buffett partner...sort of.
UPDATE: GE closed today at $21.57. Disclosure: We bought in at $22.00.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of BRK.B & GE.
Maybe the economy is not quite ready to fall off a cliff quite yet, though it appears to be heading in that direction. At least, that's the message 
U.S. stock futures were significantly lower Friday morning, a day after the Dow industrials had already plunged 678 points. The Dow dropped 21% in the past 10 days. U.S. stock markets are looking to join the plunge in global markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 9.6%, Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 7%, London's FTSE 100 declined 5.5% and the German DAX 30 was down 8% to name but a few that have managed to remain open. Some global markets actually had to close today, prompting the name "Black Friday."
What an interesting time, my friends. Seriously, we're going to look back on this period and laugh about it (maybe, depends on how much you lost, I guess). Not only has the government become one huge hedge fund as the new cliche goes, but perhaps the oddest thing about this entire episode was the ban on short-sellers.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as in '87, nothing seems to work, whether it's the rate cut or positive technical readings.
I just spent the last hour or so looking around the market, trying to find something to buy. I haven't purchased a stock in a while. I'm in the mood. But, you know something, it's pretty tough out there, to state the very, very obvious. 
My colleague (sort of) James Cramer has suddenly turned into a giant, growling bear. He has been moving in that direction for a few months and now he thinks we all should go into hibernation for five years. He is so wrong! 
After Monday, there are probably no more doubters left. We are in a bear market and we are in a recession and anyone arguing otherwise is living in a made-up world. The only thing left to argue over is how to get out of this dire situation, and how long it will last. Looking at stocks since the beginning of the year, and over the past month since the feds seized Fannie and Freddie, the picture isn't pretty. Many familiar names have vanished, many -- luckily -- have just seen their market value cut about in half. What once were some large stocks are now some of the smaller ones, including some DJIA components.
There is a lot of bad news affecting the stock market and prices are falling for some very important reasons. These include reduced expectations for earnings, higher unemployment, a lack of liquidity, a housing market that has not bottomed yet, federal spending gone wild, and the collapse of some venerable financial institutions to name a select few.
Alcoa Inc.
The market is bouncing around with every bit of news leaked from the Congress as well as company warnings and Federal reports. 'My pal Warren' is frequently being asked his opinion about the stock market and his 'stock answer' is that he ignores the overall market and its daily gyrations and focuses on individual investments and price (value).
Comfort Zone Investing: How this all might play out
Stock picks and pans for troubled times: AAPL, COST, EWBC, IBM, YUM, PG ...
NYU's Roubini: 'All fronts' approach necessary to end global financial crisis 
