I remember when Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (NASDAQ: RMCF) was a cool stock. Unfortunately, that was then and this is now. The economy is horrible, and it's getting worse. Rocky Mountain is not the company with which to ride the storm out.
The third-quarter earnings report, issued on Thursday, showed terrible data. Revenues declined well over 16% to $6.3 million. Earnings per diluted share took a big drop of 30%, coming in at $0.14. And it doesn't stop there. Comps for franchised outlets dipped over 2%. Same-store pounds of products bought by franchisees dropped 10%. Let's face it, people are cutting back on Rocky Mountain's confections. I'm sure they're delicious, but it just doesn't matter. Rocky Mountain is going to continue to struggle as we make our way through this macro mess. Management points out that the stock does pay a dividend of $0.10 per quarter. That gives a yield, as of Thursday's closing price, of just about 6%.
That's not bad, and I suppose if you're a long-term value investor who has extremely solid patience, you might want to take a look at Rocky Mountain's shares. I mean, we all know that equities are pretty irrationally priced these days. But, would I step in and buy the stock as any sort of defensive position for my portfolio? No way. I think it's headed lower. And besides, if I wanted to step in and buy something related to confectionery pleasures, I'd probably consider Hershey (NYSE: HSY) first. Not only am I a big fan of the Reese's peanut butter cup, but I perceive the portfolio controlled by Hershey to be a lot more valuable in these troubled times than Rocky Mountain's line of products. Let's hope all the Halloween trick-or-treaters out there are gearing up to help out the confection industry at the end of this month by demanding a whole lot of treats. Goodness knows, the market has already had its share of tricks this year.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Maybe the economy is not quite ready to fall off a cliff quite yet, though it appears to be heading in that direction. At least, that's the message this morning coming from Dow stalwart General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).
General Electric, whose shares have been pounded lately because of concerns about its financing unit, today reported an in-line quarter.
In a press release, GE Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt, whose job may be in jeopardy, pointed out that the conglomerate was "on track" to meet its revised -- reduced -- guidance issued September 25. He also pointed out, "We have taken a number of steps to protect investors from the downside risk in financial services, and we have ways to mitigate potential disruptions in infrastructure and media markets, but the environment remains challenging."
GE also plans to sustain its dividend through the end of next year.
"We have big backlogs, great products, stable service revenue, strong operating discipline, an unmatched global position and multiple revenue streams. As a result, the Company is well positioned to perform in a very difficult environment, and our Board has approved our plan to sustain the GE dividend through 2009," Immelt said.
Despite the positive spin, the results were pretty dreadful. Profit from continuing operations fell 12 percent to $4.48 billion, or 45 cents a share, from $5.11 billion, or 50 cents. Many businesses including Global Finance fell by double-digit percentage points. Cash flow from operations plunged 18 percent during the first nine months of the year.
How sad is it that meeting reduced expectations is seen as great news?
U.S. stock futures were significantly lower Friday morning, a day after the Dow industrials had already plunged 678 points. The Dow dropped 21% in the past 10 days. U.S. stock markets are looking to join the plunge in global markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 9.6%, Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 7%, London's FTSE 100 declined 5.5% and the German DAX 30 was down 8% to name but a few that have managed to remain open. Some global markets actually had to close today, prompting the name "Black Friday."
Wednesday's coordinated rate cut didn't seem to loosen frozen credit markets as investors seem to completely lose confidence in the world's financial system. Finance officials from the G7 are meeting in Washington Friday to address the financial meltdown. On the economic front, August trade data and September import prices will be released. Oil prices plummeted to a one-year low of $82 a barrel.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- meanwhile this morning, GE reported results that met the lowered expectations. GE's profit fell 22% to $4.3 billion, or 43 cents per share, compared with $5.56 billion, or 54 cents, a year earlier. GE's revenue climbed 11% to $47.23 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $47.34 billion. GE recently got a $3 billion infusion from Buffett's Berkshire and raised $12.2 billion through a stock offering. Shares of GE are down about 1% in pre-market trading.
IBM (NYSE: IBM) had an astonishingly good quarter, especially given the poor state of IT spending. According to CNET, "IBM said earnings per share were at $2.05 for the quarter, up 22 percent from the same period last year. Net income rose 20 percent to reach $2.8 billion, while revenue rose 5 percent to $25.3 billion." Those numbers were higher than analyst estimates. Over the last two weeks a number of researchers who cover the company said they were looking for poor numbers. They were wrong. But their concerns did take IBM down to $90 from $115 just three weeks ago.
The IBM results might tempt investors to moving into other tech shares, especially those of firms which sell to big companies. Most of the stocks in these tech suppliers trade near 52-week lows.
But that would be a mistake. IBM is diversified across a very broad spectrum of international markets, has large hardware, software and services businesses, and has kept costs extremely low. The only tech company with comparable global businesses and remarkable margins is Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
IBM is the exception to the rule. Tech stocks are in bad shape because corporate spending is down. The great depth and breadth of Big Blue's business has let it dodge that bullet.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Costco (NASDAQ: COST), the shopping club that competes with BJ's (NYSE: BJ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday. Sales did well, rising 13% to $22.6 billion. On an adjusted basis, excluding a litigation charge, the bottom line came in at $0.92 per share, and according to this source, that is one penny below expectations. Excluding the effect of gasoline inflation, comparable sales increased 6%.
For the most part, I think Costco held up well during the quarter. Yes, the warehouse club didn't wow the Wall Street analysts this time around. But comps were pretty decent for the quarter, and the top-line performance was acceptable, all things considered. Membership-fee revenue went up by 22%, which was cool.
This doesn't mean that Costco won't have a tough time going forward. As the economy worsens (and it will), Costco is going to face intense competition for the attention of the consumer's cash and credit cards. Keep in mind, though, that Costco has some good brand equity when it comes to discount shopping. The company's image is of a place where people can buy in bulk and get great deals. In a bad market environment, consumers may flock to Costco to save money. So the company might do okay (on a very relative basis) during the crisis.
Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) reported earnings for the third quarter after the bell on Tuesday. Revenue went up 11% to $2.8 billion. Earnings per share rose 16% to $0.58. Global comps increased 3%.
You know, those numbers are not bad at all. As we await earnings reports, I'm sure that you, like me, are nervous. I mean, we're in the middle of a global economic slowdown fueled by a financial-system collapse, so the data this quarter is going to be particularly telling. The fact that Yum! has double-digit growth to its credit is pretty cool to see.
No, that doesn't mean I'm a bull on the markets all of a sudden, but it does show that people are still stopping by Pizza Huts and KFCs. Guess people won't give those guilty pleasures up during the monetary apocalypse, huh? And let's look at Yum!'s cash flow. While net cash from operating activities year-to-date was pretty much flat at $1.1 billion, it was more than enough to cover the capital spending and dividend obligation. As you can imagine, management highlighted the nice cash-flow generation of Yum!'s business. During a market crisis, it's the thing to do.
According to this source, Yum! beat by four pennies. Shareholders will be pleased by that, and perhaps the shareholders of Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) can take Yum!'s performance as a good omen for their companies. I can't say that Yum! Brands is going to rocket from here based on the earnings news. But I can say that long-term investors with a lot of patience should have a winner on their hands based on the brand equity of the company and its cash-flow-generating abilities.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
The current earnings season officially got under way last night as Alcoa (NYSE: AA), the first DOW stock to report, released its third quarter numbers, and the results were not too pretty.
Going into last night's earnings release, analysts had been expecting Alcoa to earn 53 cents per share in its third quarter, but the company reported much lower actual numbers -- 33 cents per share for the quarter, or $268 million. Weak demand, coupled with falling aluminum prices were the main culprits during the quarter.
During the same period last year, the company showed earnings of 63 cents per share, or $555 million.
Since hitting an all time high in July, aluminum prices have been pulling back sharply over the past few months, and have dipped around 32% from the highs set over the summer.
The company also announced that it would be trying to preserve its cash by suspending its stock buyback plan. Previously, the company had approved a 25% buyback of its outstanding stock, and had already purchased 12%, but will stop the buying for the time being.
Shares of the company are trading down a little over 3% this morning in the premarket.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
U.S. stock futures turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated move with other central banks, cut rates by half a point to 1.5%, in an effort to help credit markets and boost financial markets. Before the rate cut, futures were lower as Wall Street was about to join global markets in a world-wide plunge that saw the Nikkei down 9.4% and European main markets down 5-6%. On the economic front, August pending home sales released later today might crimp the mood somewhat.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season after the close Tuesday. The world's third-largest aluminum producer reported a 52% drop in third quarter profit as sharply lower aluminum prices and lower demand hurt results. AA shares are down 4% in pre-market trading.
American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) -- in what could only be described as unbelievable nerve, days after the $85 billion federal bailout loan, AIG spent $440,000 on a posh California retreat for its executives that included spa treatments and much more. Lawmakers were enraged over the thousands of dollars AIG spent on executives even as the company was staving off bankruptcy. It seems it is morally bankrupt. AIG stock is recovering 5.4% this morning after the rate cut.
Over the past few years, the software industry has undergone substantial consolidation. So far, it has worked to keep margins strong.
But the strategy is not fool-proof, especially with a likely global recession on the horizon.
Well, this is now the concern of major software players like SAP (NYSE: SAP). In fact, this week the company's shares plunged 13% to $39.68 on a gloomy earnings warning.
Going into Q3, SAP forecasts software revenues to come in at a range of $2.66 billion to $2.67 billion, up about 13% over the past year. However, in July the company thought the growth rate would be 24% to 27%.
Simply put, customers are skittish – and are also having difficulties getting financing or paying on existing contracts. Even if they want software to improve productivity, there is likely not enough juice to launch new projects.
When a stock comes in with earnings under analyst estimates, it usually gets punished. But in today's market any positive news is enough to keep shares in the green, and that is what we are seeing today with Safeway (NYSE: SWY) which is up strongly despite missing estimates for its third quarter.
First, let's get the bad news out of the way. Going into this morning's earnings announcement, analysts had been looking for earnings of 47 cents per share, but the company's actual earnings missed by a penny, with a reported 46 cents a share. With today's market environment, that in and of itself could have been enough to send shares crashing, but instead the stock is actually trading up 5.6% to $23.00, and earlier in the day was up as high as $23.75. Sounds crazy, but there is some good news to follow.
What the market is really interested in now is a company's forward looking estimate. Here the company showed real strength, and stood by its full year forecast of $2.25 to $2.35. Revenues during its third quarter were also strong, as the company showed revenues of $10.17 billion, verses estimates of $10.08 billion.
U.S. stock futures were higher Tuesday morning, after stocks on Monday plummeted to lows not seen since in years as the Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time in four years. After Australia's central bank cut interest rates by the largest amount speculation regarding an interest rate cuts from central banks around the world helped alleviate some worries. Meanwhile, oil rebounded to around $90 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after plunging to an 8-month low Monday, and Bank of America issued a profit warning. Alcoa will unofficially kick off earnings season today.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) shares are trading 9.6% lower in pre-market action after it said Monday its third-quarter profit slid 68% to 15 cents a shares, below analysts' estimates of 61 cents a share. BAC also announced a dividend cut and raise $10 billion in stock offering. Analysts from Robert W. Baird and Deutsche Bank proceeded to cut their own estimates.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) shares are jumping 18% in pre-market trade after it confirmed plans to spin off its manufacturing operations to a new joint venture, Foundry Co., with an Abu Dhabi investment firm. The other part will be focused on designing microprocessors.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.
FDO opened this morning at $25.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.23 and a high of $26.05. As of 12:25, FDO is trading at $25.18, up $1.19 (4.9%). The chart for FDO looks neutral and S&P gives FDO a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just three and a half months as long as FDO is above $17.50 at January expiration. Family Dollar would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
FDO hasn't been below $17.50 since January and has shown support around $23.50 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FDO.
On Thursday, Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) said its third-quarter earnings fell 28% and warned of deteriorating conditions for 2009, and Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) posted a loss of nearly $23 million in its fiscal second quarter due to charges to reduce operations in Australia.
For the quarter ended Sept. 5, Marriott's net income slipped to $94 million, or 26 cents per share. Excluding a $29 million tax planning charge, adjusted income from continuing operations totaled $123 million, or 34 cents per share. Revenue rose 1% to $2.96 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 32 cents per share on revenue of $2.95 billion.
Marriott said its revenue per available room declined in North America, and timeshare sales evaporated due to the tight credit market and cutbacks in business and consumer spending.
The Bethesda, Md.-based hotel company lowered its full-year 2008 earnings guidance to $1.62 to $1.68 per share, from its previous guidance of $1.77 to $1.88 per share. Analysts had forecast 2008 profit of $1.78 per share. For 2009, Marriott said the outlook is uncertain, but it expects the environment to remain challenging. Marriott said it will focus on cash flow by trimming investments and share repurchases.
Marriott shares fell $1.34, or 5.3%, to $23.74 Thursday. The stock price is down 30.5% year to date.
Maybe the economy is not quite ready to fall off a cliff quite yet, though it appears to be heading in that direction. At least, that's the message 
U.S. stock futures were significantly lower Friday morning, a day after the Dow industrials had already plunged 678 points. The Dow dropped 21% in the past 10 days. U.S. stock markets are looking to join the plunge in global markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 9.6%, Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 7%, London's FTSE 100 declined 5.5% and the German DAX 30 was down 8% to name but a few that have managed to remain open. Some global markets actually had to close today, prompting the name "Black Friday."
IBM
The current earnings season officially got under way last night as 
U.S. stock futures turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated move with other central banks, 
Over the past few years, the software industry has undergone substantial consolidation. So far, it has worked to keep margins strong.
When a stock comes in with earnings under analyst estimates, it usually gets punished. But in today's market any positive news is enough to keep shares in the green, and that is what we are seeing today with 
Alcoa Inc.
For the quarter ended Sept. 5, Marriott's 
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